There's a lot of anger, frustration, and sadness, felt by many who are affected by SB5. Firefighters, teachers, cops and tens of thousands of other public sector workers who never thought their leaders would turn their public service into something to be denigrated, disrespected and devalued. As can be seen by the sentiment in the picture, a lot of that anger and frustration is going to last well past November 2011 and the SB5 repeal campaign, and be directed at the architects and supporters of the bill in elections to come.
Consequently, we thought it would be useful to provide a high level view of what the 2012 Ohio Senate elections might be, through the prism of the SB5 vote.
The Ohio Senate Basics
The Ohio Senate is made up of 33 districts. Each represented by 1 Senator who is elected to serve a 4 year term. Senators are term limited and cannot server more than 2 full consecutive terms. Senators are elected on a rolling basis. Those that represent even numbered districts are elected in Presidential election years, and those with odd numbered districts are elected in Gubenatorial election years. So the next election for State Senators is next year, 2012, a Presidential election year. Even numbered district State Senators will be up for reelection.
The Current Ohio Senate Make Up
The current Ohio Senate is controlled by 23 Republicans making up the majority, and only 10 Democrats making up the remainder of the body. Unlike the US Senate, there is no filibuster. Bills pass on majority votes. That means only 17 of the 23 Republicans need to vote yes to pass a bill. That might be a familiar number.
Senate Bill 5: How it went down
The bill was introduced in the Senate (Hence the name - Senate Bill 5) by State Senator Shannon Jones (R), and on March 2nd, after Kremlinesque moves to stack committee's, the full Ohio Senate voted 17-16 to pass SB5. Only Republicans voted for the bill.
The Culprits
| Cliff Hite | District 1 |
| Mark Wagoner | District 2 |
| Kevin Bacon | District 3 |
| Gary Cates | District 4 |
| Bill Beagle | District 5 |
| Peggy Lehner | District 6 |
| Shannon Jones | District 7 |
| Chris Widener | District 10 |
| Keith Faber | District 12 |
| Tom Niehaus | District 14 |
| David T. Daniels | District 17 |
| Kris Jordan | District 19 |
| Jimmy Stewart | District 20 |
| Larry Obhof | District 22 |
| Karen Gillmor | District 26 |
| Frank LaRose | District 27 |
| Tim Schaffer | District 31 |
The 2012 Targets
To determine which of these Senators would be 2012 targets, we first must exclude all those representing odd numbered districts. That eliminates 8, including SB5 author Shannon Jones, leaving the following:
| Mark Wagoner | District 2 |
| Gary Cates | District 4 |
| Peggy Lehner | District 6 |
| Chris Widener | District 10 |
| Keith Faber | District 12 |
| Tom Niehaus | District 14 |
| Jimmy Stewart | District 20 |
| Larry Obhof | District 22 |
| Karen Gillmor | District 26 |
Since that SB5 vote, there has been, or will be, some changes. Sen. Cates was appointed to the Board of Regents, so he can escape voter consequences for his actions. Senate President Niehaus is term limited, so he too can escape the voters. Senator Jimmy Stewart sold out to go become a lobbyist for the Oil and gas industry, and Sen Karen Gillmor is strongly rumored to be appointed to the Ohio Industrial Commission as a reward for her SB5 vote. Sen. Mark Wagoner has indicated he will not seek reelection in 2012 too, so we mark his name with an asterisk
That leaves just the following famous five who can currently be targeted in 2012 by those upset and angered by their actions
| Mark Wagoner* | District 2 |
| Peggy Lehner | District 6 |
| Chris Widener | District 10 |
| Keith Faber | District 12 |
| Larry Obhof | District 22 |
Closing Comments
2011 is a redistricting year. That process should start in August. Ohio has some notoriously gerrymandered districts, particularly in the Senate. With certainty, Senate districts will be redrawn. Some of these famous five might find themselves with more, or less, favorable districts. Indeed, we might not even have seen the last of the flight from votes. The Governor may hand out yet more new jobs as rewards.
What is clear though, a lot of people are going to have very long memories about those that passed SB5.