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I Don't Understand Michelle Rhee

A must read

Of all the images of Rhee, the one that sticks in my head is when she invited a PBS film crew to watch her fire a principal. She said to the crew: "I'm going to fire somebody in a little while. Do you want to see that?" Of course they did, and they filmed it. It was then that I realized that she enjoys hurting people. She enjoys watching people suffer.

In another infamous incident, Rhee told an audience of young teachers that when she was a teacher, she controlled her restless class by putting duct tape on their mouths; when the tape came off, their lips were bleeding. Apparently, the audience found that act of child abuse very funny.

Today Rhee is a national figure. Her organization claims to have a million members, though I hear that anyone who goes to her website is automatically registered as a member. StudentsFirst sends out deceptive email solicitations—I received one myself—asking the recipient if you want to see a great teacher in every classroom. Rhee's name does not appear anywhere on the email. If you answer yes, you are registered as a "member" of StudentsFirst. I don't understand this kind of deceptive marketing on behalf of someone who claims to be concerned about education.

Her organization allegedly has raised more than $200 million and is well on its way to raising $1 billion. This money will be used to attack teachers' unions; to strip teachers of any job protections; to promote vouchers, charters, and for-profit organizations that manage charter schools; and to fund candidates who want to reduce spending on public education and privatize it. I have heard rumors about big-name donors to Rhee, but can't verify them. StudentsFirst does not release the names of its contributors.

Let me add that I find offensive the very concept of "StudentsFirst." The basic idea is that teachers are selfish and greedy and do not have the interests of students at heart. So students need a champion to protect them against their venal teachers, and Rhee is that champion. Supposedly, Rhee and her allies—assorted billionaires, big corporations, wealthy foundations, and rightwing governors—are the only people who can be trusted to care about our nation's children. A New York City writer, Gail Robinson, recently challenged Rhee's claim to be above self-interest after Rhee announced that she was bringing her campaign to New York City.

Data shows massive and widespread opposition to SB5

These are some truly astonishing numbers released by the We Are Ohio campaign. It details the number of signatures collected in each county, and with a bit of math, the percentage of registered voters that represents. We've sorted the list to show which counties collected the most signatures as a percentage of voters.

Almost a quarter (in some cases more) of all registered voters in 10 or so counties signed the petition - included two of the largest counties in the state - Cuyahoga and Hamilton. We analyzed what turn out might look like in November, and this data can only confirm the worst fears of SB5 supporters - there is massive and widespread opposition to SB5.

County Total signatures Total registered voters Signatures as % registered voters
Lucas 89,610 317,046 28%
Monroe 2,884 10,272 28%
Adams 4,289 18,373 23%
Erie 11,962 53,980 22%
Hamilton 124,879 565,418 22%
Cuyahoga 206,235 978,267 21%
Jackson 4,991 23,283 21%
Mahoning 37,680 181,759 21%
Noble 1,860 8,814 21%
Coshocton 4,277 21,234 20%
Meigs 3,201 16,042 20%
Vinton 1,792 9,056 20%
Franklin 157,489 811,831 19%
Trumbull 27,846 149,685 19%
Athens 8,984 49,440 18%
Hocking 3,351 18,634 18%
Belmont 8,102 47,834 17%
Gallia 3,395 21,535 16%
Guernsey 4,059 25,810 16%
Lake 25,323 157,732 16%
Lorain 32,996 206,660 16%
Madison 3,857 24,792 16%
Pickaway 5,397 32,751 16%
Ross 7,126 45,332 16%
Scioto 7,534 47,167 16%
Summit 60,002 371,028 16%
Medina 19,260 125,684 15%
Ottawa 4,682 30,395 15%
Pike 2,814 19,120 15%
Sandusky 5,740 39,531 15%
Stark 40,772 267,350 15%
Tuscarawas 9,159 59,920 15%
Ashtabula 9,246 65,801 14%
Crawford 3,988 29,170 14%
Defiance 3,731 26,347 14%
Delaware 17,070 119,690 14%
Fayette 2,268 16,312 14%
Jefferson 7,256 51,116 14%
Seneca 5,328 37,148 14%
Wayne 10,613 75,097 14%
Fairfield 13,813 102,716 13%
Licking 14,708 113,245 13%
Marion 5,485 41,017 13%
Perry 3,186 23,712 13%
Portage 14,393 110,446 13%
Wood 13,045 103,312 13%
Clark 10,883 92,438 12%
Columbiana 8,482 71,043 12%
Lawrence 5,514 47,438 12%
Morgan 1,067 9,240 12%
Muskingum 6,296 54,477 12%
Richland 10,274 87,138 12%
Allen 7,865 69,931 11%
Butler 27,648 240,541 11%
Clermont 14,128 132,696 11%
Fulton 3,496 30,562 11%
Geauga 7,014 65,507 11%
Harrison 1,251 11,266 11%
Henry 2,341 20,582 11%
Huron 3,926 36,993 11%
Knox 4,395 40,304 11%
Montgomery 44,016 385,652 11%
Warren 15,457 135,490 11%
Washington 4,663 42,740 11%
Ashland 3,653 35,768 10%
Brown 3,012 29,579 10%
Carroll 2,040 19,838 10%
Hardin 1,884 18,224 10%
Morrow 2,500 25,986 10%
Paulding 1,361 13,407 10%
Putnam 2,110 24,328 9%
Williams 2,391 25,542 9%
Wyandot 1,334 15,567 9%
Champaign 2,081 26,707 8%
Greene 9,891 116,552 8%
Hancock 4,115 54,834 8%
Miami 5,896 71,894 8%
Preble 2,405 28,323 8%
Union 2,683 34,147 8%
Van Wert 1,729 20,406 8%
Auglaize 2,326 32,800 7%
Clinton 1,783 26,722 7%
Shelby 2,294 31,973 7%
Highland 1,725 27,608 6%
Logan 1,760 30,865 6%
Mercer 1,817 28,609 6%
Holmes 802 17,807 5%
Darke 1,579 35,378 4%
Total 1,297,565 8,037,806 16.1%

SB5, Issue campaigns and Polls

There's a long way to go before SB5 is repealed. What may currently feel like a wind to your back can suddenly reveal itself to be a maelstrom instead. With today's polling news that Ohioans overwhelmingly favor repealing SB5, we thought it would be a good idea to cover some election basics.

Right now we are collecting signatures to place the repeal of SB5 on the November 2011 ballot. We need 231,000 verified signatures, which means we need a lot more than that in reality, conservatively, 50% more. But. Each person who signs a SB5 repeal petition is almost as good as a vote, so the more signatures collected the better our chances in November.

November 2011 would be a very low turnout election year under most circumstances, with no major offices on the ballot to attract people to the polls. A similar past year, 2007 saw only 31.34% of registered voters cast a ballot, compared to 53.25% in 2006 and 69.97% in 2008.

Given this, the first thing to bare in mind is that there is a great difference between a voter and a registered voter. A lot of registered voters do not actually vote! In off-cycle election years like 2011 it could be about 2/3 of registered voters who stay home on election day. There are a few lessons to be learned from this simple and obvious fact.

  1. When reading polls be careful to consider if they are of registered voters (RV), or have been screened for likely voters(LV).
    Today's Quinnipiac poll is of registered voters, as will most polls be until after Labor Day when it becomes easier to gauge a persons likelihood to vote
  2. Getting your supporters to actually go vote (GOTV) is crucial to success.
    We need to turn as many registered voters into actual voters on election day in November. The best way to do that right now is to collect signatures. Lots and lots of them.

Back to polling. We all know about sampling errors and margin of error, but you should also be aware that it is very hard to accurately poll issue campaigns, and even harder to do so in low turnout elections. Two recent examples from Ohio demonstrate this quite well.

In 2005 a group of people attempted to reform Ohio's election and redistricting laws. Right before the election the Bliss Institute polled the issues and found

State Issue Two (Absentee Balloting)
Favor: 63.8%
Oppose: 36.2%

State Issue Three (Campaign Contributions)
Favor: 61.2%
Oppose: 38.8%

State Issue Four (Nonpartisan Redistricting)
Favor: 43.5%
Oppose: 56.5%

State Issue Five (Role of Secretary of State)
Favor: 42.5%
Oppose: 57.5%

The Dispatch found similar results. All 4 issues lost just a few days later by massive 2:1 margins. The polling was way off.

In 2006 a coalition similar to the SB5 coalition put a minimum wage initiative on the ballot. It won 57%-43%, but in a NYT/CBS poll just 2 weeks earlier it enjoyed over 77% support.

The bottom line -

  • We have to work hard now, to collect as many signatures as possible
  • We have to work hard through the summer and fall to talk to voters and convince them that repealing SB5 is the right thing to do
  • In the closing month of the election get as many people to vote early as possible
  • On election day, get as many supporters of repeal to the polls as possible

That's a lot of work. Ready for it?