Where the polls stand - 22 days to go

With just over 3 weeks remaining until the November 6th election, Presidential polling has gotten a lot tighter, with the Presidents large lead having been eroded since the first debate.

Real Clear Politics now has the President ahead by just 10 Electoral College votes, with 146 up for grabs.

The NYT pollster has the President projected to win in the narrowest of fashions to date, too

Meanwhile, in Ohio, the race has tightened too, but remains a crucial firewall for the President

As you can see from the graph below, Mitt Romney has never led in Ohio

These polling leads in Ohio are confirmed by actual votes currently being cast early

A new poll shows President Obama with a commanding 59-31 percent lead among those who have already voted, with seven percent of those surveyed saying they have already cast their ballot.

A second poll, from PPP, showed similar results

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.

The President is being projected to win Ohio by the NYT polling analyst, but by the smallest probability we have seen to date

Where the polls stand - Post Debate

Almost a week after the first debate, while the race has narrowed marginally, the national and statewide polling continues to show President Obama in a strong position.

In the Electoral College, Real Clear Politics calculates that the President has a lead of 251 (down from 265) votes to Mitt Romney's 181 (down from 191), with 106 in toss-up status.

The NYT polling analyst, 538, shows President Obama projected to win the Electoral College 307.6 - 230.4

In Ohio, the Presidents polling average lead is down from 5.6% to a still healthy 3.0%

This slight softening of polling in Ohio, has President Obama still projected to have a 79.1% chance of prevailing.

With early votiung underway, Boards of Elections are seeing high turnout

COLUMBUS DISPATCH // New Early-Voting Site Has Critics, Fans on First Day

Many people interviewed at Franklin County’s in-person absentee-voting center on opening day yesterday said that uncertainty surrounding the voting hours leading up to Nov. 6 and the change in the early-voting location have disenfranchised voters…

Yesterday, 1,396 people voted. In 2008, the previous presidential election year, 725 showed up on the first day of in-person voting.

TOLEDO BLADE // Turnout For the First Day of Early Voting Nearly Double of that of 2008

The first day of early voting in Lucas County is over, and the turnout was nearly twice that of the first day of early voting in 2008. It was an overwhelmingly Democratic day. Of the 928 voters, 696 were Democrats, 40 were Republicans, and the rest, 192, were members of other parties or were not affiliated with a party. There was a similar balance in favor of Democrats on the first day of early voting in 2008, when President Obama won in Lucas County and Ohio.

DAYTON DAILY NEWS // Voters Turn Up to Cast Ballots Early

Montgomery County had 695 voters while Champaign County had just 88. In Butler County 540 voters cast ballots. Clark County, which has been a battleground for Republicans and Democrats, had a higher first-day voter turnout - 380 - than larger counties like Warren and Greene, which had 282 and 354 respectively.

“I was just surprised; we didn’t have this (turnout) in 2008 that I recall,” said BOE Deputy Director Sally Pickarski. “It’s been fairly steady all day.”

AKRON BEACON JOURNAL // Early Voting Draws Crowd In Summit County

By the end of the day Tuesday, 1,035 people had voted early in Summit County, more than twice the 458 people who cast absentee ballots on the first day of early voting in 2008, the previous presidential election year. About 75 voters had to stand in the rain outside the board Tuesday, waiting their turns.

IndeOnline (Massilon) // Early Voting Doubles in Stark from Four Years Ago

“It’s been busy all morning,” said Mullane, as voters created a buzz outside her office. “In comparison to 2008, in-person early voting has more than doubled.”

CINCINNATI ENQUIRER // Early Voters ‘Making A Statement’

Within the first hour, nearly 100 people voted at the elections board’s Downtown office. By the time the office closed at 5 p.m., the total had risen to 816, about 27 percent higher than 2008’s 644, according to elections board director Amy Searcy.

Cleveland Plan Press Conference

In a downtrodden press conference that broke little new news, Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson, Representative Sandra Williams (D-Cleveland), House Finance and Appropriations Chairman Ron Amstutz (R-Wooster), Senate Minority Whip Nina Turner (D-Cleveland) and Senate Education Chairwoman Peggy Lehner (R-Kettering) spoke about the "Cleveland Plan".

The plan still has no sponsors, nor co-sponsors. The sticking points for the Democrats continues to be the anti-union SB5 like provisions, and the secretive, non democratic nature of the so-called "transformation alliance". For the Republicans the shadow cast by a plan that has many elements of SB5, and some of the charter school accountability measures that are opposed by some of the largest campaign contributors are sticking points.

Some of Jackson's continued rhetoric, for example "those concerned about the Cleveland plan & Senate Bill 5 shouldn't be", are signs that the Mayor still views his plan as a sacred cow, and not a starting place. That's a pity and might doom an enterprise to rescue Cleveland schools from academic and financial crisis that everyone recognizes and wants to deal positively with.