Where the polls stand - the last look

Here's our last look at the state of the polls before we know the result tomorrow.

After months of campaigning, millions spent on advertising and mail, the campaign has settled in to where it always looked destined to, a narrow lead for the president, creating an even narrower path for Mr Romney to achieve 270 electoral college votes.

The most conservative of the polling analyst, Real Clear Politics, has the race for electoral college votes almost neck-and-neck

One of the states they have in the toss-up column naturally being Ohio. However, their state-by-state look at the polling shows President Obama with a lead averaging 2.9%, one of his largest in some time, right at the moment he would want to be leading.

Meanwhile, 538, the NYT poll analyst has the President winning the electoral college vote 307.2 - 230.8, a margin that has been increasing since the first debate

583 has the probably of President Obama winning Ohio at 86.8%.

If you just want to settle in an watch the results, BuzzFeed has created a "Viewer's Guide To Who Won The Presidential Election"

This (probably)* doesn't have to be all that complicated. Obama has several paths to victory. Romney has fewer. And these are the main ones, organized by the time (EST) that polls close.
*The New York Times counts 512 possible outcomes — but the paths above are the likely ones.

As you can see, Romney has to run the table of swing states in order to prevail.

Of course, all of this only matters if you vote. Don't forget to check our our voters checklist of what you might need, and what your voting rights are in Ohio.

Ohio Voters’ Checklist

Via www.866ourvote.org

Election Protection and the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights have released voter rights checklists for all 50 states. These one-page guides explain polling times, what IDs may be required to vote, rights to provisional ballots and more and include the phone number for a toll-free Election Protection Hotline you can use if you encounter problems trying to cast your vote.

If you have any questions or need further information, please call the Election Protection Hotline 4842-6987-3167\2 at 1-866-OUR-VOTE (1-866-687-8683) or go to www.866OurVote.org. For Spanish-language assistance, call 1-888-Ve-Y-Vota.

1. On Election Day, EACH POLLING PLACE WILL BE OPEN BETWEEN 6:30 A.M. AND 7:30 P.M. A voter in line by 7:30 P.M. HAS THE RIGHT TO VOTE.

2. Ohio law requires that each polling place be accessible to physically disabled voters, unless exempted. If exempted, the disabled voter must be required to vote curbside in your vehicle.

3. If you cannot read or write, or you are blind or otherwise disabled, and need assistance voting, YOU HAVE THE RIGHT TO RECEIVE HELP WITH VOTING and may designate someone of your choice, other than an employer or an officer or agent of your union, to provide such assistance. Election officials may also provide assistance.

4. If you do not have photo identification at the polls, YOU HAVE THE RIGHT TO VOTE a provisional ballot that should be counted as long as you are properly registered to vote and in the right precinct, which is where you reside on Election Day. For your provisional ballot to count, you must show, either at your precinct or at the county Board of Elections within ten (10) days either the last four digits of your social security number, driver’s license number, sign an affirmation or show a valid form of identification. To vote a REGULAR ballot, you must show: a current and valid Ohio driver’s license, a current and valid photo identification issued by Ohio or federal government, a military identification (if it can be ascertained by the poll worker that the person is who they say they are), or a copy of a current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or another government document

5. If you have moved within the same precinct, YOU HAVE THE RIGHT TO VOTE a regular ballot upon completing a change of residence at the polls.

6. If you have moved to a different precinct in the same county prior to the election, YOU HAVE THE RIGHT TO VOTE at the polling place of your NEW residence upon updating your registration. If you do not update before Election Day, YOU HAVE THE RIGHT TO VOTE a provisional ballot on Election Day.

7. If you have moved to a different county prior to the election, YOU HAVE THE RIGHT TO VOTE a provisional ballot at the new polling place that corresponds to your new address in your NEW COUNTY, or at the Board of Elections, on Election Day upon completing a change of residence at the polls.

8. If you make a mistake or “spoil” your ballot, and have not cast the ballot, YOU HAVE THE RIGHT TO RECEIVE UP TO TWO REPLACEMENT BALLOT after returning the spoiled ballot.

9. YOU HAVE THE RIGHT TO WAIT TO VOTE (OR TO VOTE) without anyone electioneering or trying to influence your vote within the area marked by small U.S. flags, or within ten feet of you if you are in line outside that area.

10. YOU HAVE THE RIGHT to take up to five minutes in the voting booth, if all booths are occupied and voters are waiting in line. If all booths are not occupied and there are not voters waiting in line, you may take longer than five minutes.

YOU HAVE THE RIGHT TO TAKE THIS CHECKLIST INTO THE VOTING BOOTH WITH YOU.

You can download a copy of this checklist, here.

Where the polls stand - 22 days to go

With just over 3 weeks remaining until the November 6th election, Presidential polling has gotten a lot tighter, with the Presidents large lead having been eroded since the first debate.

Real Clear Politics now has the President ahead by just 10 Electoral College votes, with 146 up for grabs.

The NYT pollster has the President projected to win in the narrowest of fashions to date, too

Meanwhile, in Ohio, the race has tightened too, but remains a crucial firewall for the President

As you can see from the graph below, Mitt Romney has never led in Ohio

These polling leads in Ohio are confirmed by actual votes currently being cast early

A new poll shows President Obama with a commanding 59-31 percent lead among those who have already voted, with seven percent of those surveyed saying they have already cast their ballot.

A second poll, from PPP, showed similar results

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.

The President is being projected to win Ohio by the NYT polling analyst, but by the smallest probability we have seen to date

Where the polls stand - Post Debate

Almost a week after the first debate, while the race has narrowed marginally, the national and statewide polling continues to show President Obama in a strong position.

In the Electoral College, Real Clear Politics calculates that the President has a lead of 251 (down from 265) votes to Mitt Romney's 181 (down from 191), with 106 in toss-up status.

The NYT polling analyst, 538, shows President Obama projected to win the Electoral College 307.6 - 230.4

In Ohio, the Presidents polling average lead is down from 5.6% to a still healthy 3.0%

This slight softening of polling in Ohio, has President Obama still projected to have a 79.1% chance of prevailing.

With early votiung underway, Boards of Elections are seeing high turnout

COLUMBUS DISPATCH // New Early-Voting Site Has Critics, Fans on First Day

Many people interviewed at Franklin County’s in-person absentee-voting center on opening day yesterday said that uncertainty surrounding the voting hours leading up to Nov. 6 and the change in the early-voting location have disenfranchised voters…

Yesterday, 1,396 people voted. In 2008, the previous presidential election year, 725 showed up on the first day of in-person voting.

TOLEDO BLADE // Turnout For the First Day of Early Voting Nearly Double of that of 2008

The first day of early voting in Lucas County is over, and the turnout was nearly twice that of the first day of early voting in 2008. It was an overwhelmingly Democratic day. Of the 928 voters, 696 were Democrats, 40 were Republicans, and the rest, 192, were members of other parties or were not affiliated with a party. There was a similar balance in favor of Democrats on the first day of early voting in 2008, when President Obama won in Lucas County and Ohio.

DAYTON DAILY NEWS // Voters Turn Up to Cast Ballots Early

Montgomery County had 695 voters while Champaign County had just 88. In Butler County 540 voters cast ballots. Clark County, which has been a battleground for Republicans and Democrats, had a higher first-day voter turnout - 380 - than larger counties like Warren and Greene, which had 282 and 354 respectively.

“I was just surprised; we didn’t have this (turnout) in 2008 that I recall,” said BOE Deputy Director Sally Pickarski. “It’s been fairly steady all day.”

AKRON BEACON JOURNAL // Early Voting Draws Crowd In Summit County

By the end of the day Tuesday, 1,035 people had voted early in Summit County, more than twice the 458 people who cast absentee ballots on the first day of early voting in 2008, the previous presidential election year. About 75 voters had to stand in the rain outside the board Tuesday, waiting their turns.

IndeOnline (Massilon) // Early Voting Doubles in Stark from Four Years Ago

“It’s been busy all morning,” said Mullane, as voters created a buzz outside her office. “In comparison to 2008, in-person early voting has more than doubled.”

CINCINNATI ENQUIRER // Early Voters ‘Making A Statement’

Within the first hour, nearly 100 people voted at the elections board’s Downtown office. By the time the office closed at 5 p.m., the total had risen to 816, about 27 percent higher than 2008’s 644, according to elections board director Amy Searcy.

Where the polls stand - as voting begins

With two days to go before the first debate, the national and statewide polling continues to show President Obama in a very strong position.

In the Electoral College, Real Clear Politics calculates that the President has expanded his lead to 265 votes to Mitt Romney's 191, an increase of 28 votes for the President over the last 2 weeks.

The NYT polling analyst, 538, also shows President Obama with an increased projected win in the electoral college

In Ohio, the Presidents polling average lead is now outside the margin of error at 5.6%.

This spate of positive polling in Ohio, has President Obama now projected to have a 86.1% chance of prevailing - a full 10% higher than last week

Of further concern to the Romney campaign will be that early voting in Ohio and elsewhere is either about to begin, or already underway. There are going to be fewer and fewer opportunities to change voters minds before their vote is locked in.

Talking Points Memo also notes that the weakening situation Mitt Romney is finding himself in, is having an effect down ticket too. Republicans were favored to take control of the Senate earlier in the year, that chance appears to be receding, as Democrats have now taken leads in a number of swing Senate races.

Where the polls stand - 6 weeks out

With just 6 weeks of campaigning left, the President continues to hold a strong position.

In the Electoral College, Real Clear Politics calculates that the President currently holds the edge with 247 votes to Mitt Romney's 191, an increase of 10 votes for the President since last week.

In Ohio, all polling continues to show the President with a small, but significant lead.

The NYT polling analyst, 538, also shows President Obama with a large projected win in the electoral college

In Ohio, President Obama is projected to have a 76.5% chance of prevailing - his largest margin to date.

Not included in these analysis is a just released poll by Ohio's newspapers, which showed the Presdient leading Mitt Romney 51-46. The very same poll also confirmed polling trends that Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Josh Mandel by a sizable margin 52-45