A decade-long crisis of democracy

We highlighted that despite Ohio voters in the aggregate preferring Democrats over Republicans in the 2012 election, the Republicans will hold a probable super majority 60-39 as a consequence of extreme partisan gerrymandering. The Dispatch was prompted by this result to produce an article about redistricting

Issue 2 is dead, buried deep by Ohio voters last week.

But over and over again, opponents of the redistricting plan, be they Republicans or editorial-page writers, noted that their opposition was not based on the belief that the current system of drawing legislative and congressional districts is good.

In fact, most acknowledged that it remains badly in need of an overhaul.

But if was this paragraph in the article that prompted us to take an even deeper look

Republicans now control 75 percent of the U.S. House seats and nearly two-thirds of the legislative seats in a state that has leaned Republican but is a key battleground state

We analyzed Ohio House of Representative results for each of the past 6 election cycles. By aggregating the votes for Democrats and Republicans in contested races we found a systematic, and extreme disenfranchising of Democratic representation in Ohio

Year	Democratic	Republican	D Seats	R Seats
2012	2,418,815	2,362,310	39	60
2010	1,447,949	1,696,064	40	59
2008	2,296,678	1,982,281	53	46
2006	1,832,548	1,605,801	46	53
2004	1,869,051	2,036,398	38	60
2002	1,243,671	1,364,656	36	63
Total	11,108,712	11,047,510

Based upon the preferences of voters, Democrats should have controlledthe General assemblies after the 2012, and 2006 elections - but were denied by partisan gerrymandering. Furthermore, the majorities that Republicans did earn in all of their successful years should have been much, much smaller - and never reacher super majority status.

Indeed when one looks at the sum total of votes in contest races over the past decade, rather than being center right, the results indicate a center to center left leaning electorate.

It is simply not possible to conclude that Ohioans have been legitimately represented in the 21st century by their preferred choices, either in actuality or in scope. We have a crisis of democracy in Ohio.

Ohio House Dems won popular vote

Issue 2, also known as voters first was heavily defeated 63-37, under an avalanche of opposition money seeking to maintain the status quo. Had issue 2 been successful it would have given the ability of voters to pick their representatives, rather than the current gerrymandered reverse situation.

Just how bad is the current system of rigged districts? We took a look at the 99 Ohio house races. Our analysis found that despite the Democrats trailing republics in the new legislature 60-39, they actually won the popular vote.

Democrats received a total of 2,418,815 votes across the 99 house district and the Republicans only 2,362,310 - over 56,000 less. If districts were apportioned according to the weight of voters actually preference, the Democrats would have a majority of 51-48, not rendered all but impotent trailing 60-39.

The current situation is so untenable, even critics of issue 2 agree reforms are needed.

But a number of GOP critics of Issue 2 also agreed that the current redistricting process needs to be changed. So the big question now is: What happens next?

A bipartisan legislative redistricting task force has met a few times and is supposed to recommend changes to the House and Senate in December. Also, some say the Constitutional Modernization Commission should make redistricting one of its top priorities.

Catherine Turcer, chairwoman of Voters First Ohio, the coalition that pushed Issue 2, and Ohio State University election-law expert Daniel Tokaji, who helped draft the plan, said that at least there was agreement that the system needs to be changed.

“If we all agree that the system is broken, we should also agree that the people of Ohio should not have to wait until 2022 to fix it,” they said in a joint statement. “It’s time to put voters first and come together to agree on a solution.”

Gov. John Kasich added: “Reforms need to be considered in a thoughtful, bipartisan way to ensure that districts are competitive and fair and Ohioans’ interests are fully represented.”

These unfair districts also explain the disappointing results of races involving educators

But Stephen Brooks, a political scientist with the Bliss Institute at the University of Akron, says all that probably had little to do with the way the races turned out.

“They were not in well-designed districts for Democrats to run in so I’m not sure being a schoolteacher or not being a schoolteacher had much to do with that. They were having difficult races because they were running in non-competitive districts, if you will,” he says.

The only one of the new teacher-candidates to win is John Patterson, who will represent House District 99 in Ashtabula County. Two other former teachers who were incumbents retained their seats in the Ohio House.

A system where the majority of citizens are not represented by their preferred elected leaders is not a sustainable system. The current Ohio General Assembly, and the 130th that will follow it have no mandate from the voters, and their first course of action ought to be to repair the broken redistricting system immediately.

Where the polls stand - Post Debate

Almost a week after the first debate, while the race has narrowed marginally, the national and statewide polling continues to show President Obama in a strong position.

In the Electoral College, Real Clear Politics calculates that the President has a lead of 251 (down from 265) votes to Mitt Romney's 181 (down from 191), with 106 in toss-up status.

The NYT polling analyst, 538, shows President Obama projected to win the Electoral College 307.6 - 230.4

In Ohio, the Presidents polling average lead is down from 5.6% to a still healthy 3.0%

This slight softening of polling in Ohio, has President Obama still projected to have a 79.1% chance of prevailing.

With early votiung underway, Boards of Elections are seeing high turnout

COLUMBUS DISPATCH // New Early-Voting Site Has Critics, Fans on First Day

Many people interviewed at Franklin County’s in-person absentee-voting center on opening day yesterday said that uncertainty surrounding the voting hours leading up to Nov. 6 and the change in the early-voting location have disenfranchised voters…

Yesterday, 1,396 people voted. In 2008, the previous presidential election year, 725 showed up on the first day of in-person voting.

TOLEDO BLADE // Turnout For the First Day of Early Voting Nearly Double of that of 2008

The first day of early voting in Lucas County is over, and the turnout was nearly twice that of the first day of early voting in 2008. It was an overwhelmingly Democratic day. Of the 928 voters, 696 were Democrats, 40 were Republicans, and the rest, 192, were members of other parties or were not affiliated with a party. There was a similar balance in favor of Democrats on the first day of early voting in 2008, when President Obama won in Lucas County and Ohio.

DAYTON DAILY NEWS // Voters Turn Up to Cast Ballots Early

Montgomery County had 695 voters while Champaign County had just 88. In Butler County 540 voters cast ballots. Clark County, which has been a battleground for Republicans and Democrats, had a higher first-day voter turnout - 380 - than larger counties like Warren and Greene, which had 282 and 354 respectively.

“I was just surprised; we didn’t have this (turnout) in 2008 that I recall,” said BOE Deputy Director Sally Pickarski. “It’s been fairly steady all day.”

AKRON BEACON JOURNAL // Early Voting Draws Crowd In Summit County

By the end of the day Tuesday, 1,035 people had voted early in Summit County, more than twice the 458 people who cast absentee ballots on the first day of early voting in 2008, the previous presidential election year. About 75 voters had to stand in the rain outside the board Tuesday, waiting their turns.

IndeOnline (Massilon) // Early Voting Doubles in Stark from Four Years Ago

“It’s been busy all morning,” said Mullane, as voters created a buzz outside her office. “In comparison to 2008, in-person early voting has more than doubled.”

CINCINNATI ENQUIRER // Early Voters ‘Making A Statement’

Within the first hour, nearly 100 people voted at the elections board’s Downtown office. By the time the office closed at 5 p.m., the total had risen to 816, about 27 percent higher than 2008’s 644, according to elections board director Amy Searcy.

DNC Convention Day 1 - Democrats Strike Back

Day one of the DNC convention in North Carolina included the release of the Democratic Party platform. The Washington Post has a rundown of all the education mentions, which include this section

Because there is no substitute for a great teacher at the head of a classroom, the President helped school districts save more than 400,000 educator jobs.

We Democrats honor our nation’s teachers, who do a heroic job for their students every day. If we want high-quality education for all our kids, we must listen to the people who are on the front lines. The President has laid out a plan to prevent more teacher layoffs while attracting and rewarding great teachers. This includes raising standards for the programs that prepare our teachers, recognizing and rewarding good teaching, and retaining good teachers. We also believe in carefully crafted evaluation systems that give struggling teachers a chance to succeed and protect due process if another teacher has to be put in the classroom. We also recognize there is no substitute for a parent’s involvement in their child’s education.

Former Ohio Governor Ted Strickland delivered a stemwinder of a speech

“Mitt Romney proudly wrote an op-ed titled, ‘Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.’ If he had had his way, devastation would have cascaded from Michigan to Ohio and across the nation,” Strickland told the crowd Tuesday night. “Mitt Romney never saw the point of building something when he could profit from tearing it down. If Mitt was Santa Claus, he’d fire the reindeer and outsource the elves.”

Strickland led off by lambasting Romney’s opposition to the 2008 auto rescue, which was especially critical to Ohio’s industrial economy.

“If he had had his way, devastation would have cascaded from Michigan to Ohio and across the nation,” Strickland said.

But far more than a simple policy speech, Strickland portrayed Romney as a morally suspect and deeply un-American villain willing to do anything to make a dollar no matter who was hurt. His Caribbean holdings and past use of a Swiss bank account drew the toughest condemnation.

“Mitt Romney has so little economic patriotism that even his money needs a passport,” Strickland said. “It summers on the beaches of the Cayman Islands and winters on the slopes of the Swiss Alps. In Matthew, chapter 6, verse 21, the scriptures teach us that where your treasure is, there will your heart be also. My friends, any man who aspires to be our president should keep both his treasure and his heart in the United States of America.”

The highlight of the evening for the gathered Democrats was a speech by First Lady Michelle Obama, that brought tears and applause from most in attendance

Here's the word cloud of her speech

Day one of the DNC convention then, saw the Democrats strike back at the Republicans, whose own convention has produced little bounce in the polls.

A Democrat's bold plan to force GOP to re-legislate SB5

Frank Jackson may actually be a political mastermind, even if his roots are firmly planted in the corporate education camp's garden. His education "reform" plan contains provisions ripped right out of the pages of SB5.

Part of Jackson's plan asks the legislature to eliminate seniority as the sole factor in employment decisions and to allow the district to institute a merit pay plan. The changes would apply only to Cleveland as the state's sole district under mayoral control.

Both provisions were part of Senate Bill 5, a controversial collective bargaining law that would have affected public employees statewide. The law, which was put to a referendum as Issue 2 on the November ballot by a labor coalition backed by Democrats, was stomped by Ohio voters.

Rep. Mike Foley and state Sen. Nina Turner, both Cleveland Democrats, said they weren't ready to endorse what Turner called "Senate Bill 5 Lite." But both said they were keeping an open mind.

Mayor Jackson is calling for provisions that voters overwhelmingly repealed to be re-legislated by Ohio's Republican controlled general assembly.

Public Policy Polling just released their latest poll results of Ohio and found

After a little over a year on the job, Ohioans appear to be having voter’s remorse over the election of Republican John Kasich as Governor. Kasich holds a 53% job disapproval rating compared to just 33% approval. Independents disapprove by a 38-47 rate, just 9% of Democrats approve compared to 80% who do not, and 25% of Republicans disapprove while only 58% approve.

25% of Republicans disapprove. A majority of that disapproval comes as a result of the bitter SB5 fight. Those workers regardless of party, seemingly have long memories and are not ready to forget their betrayal. The thought of re-legislating pieces of SB5 might not be so appealing once heads clear.

The picture is further complicated for a number of Republican incumbents. For example, Plunderbund reports on Republican candidate Eric Spicer who is running for the Ohio House's 73rd District against State Rep. Jerrod Martin.

Spicer was an early voice against SB 5. “We tried to shove through bad legislation,” Spicer said, “that was a fiasco.” Spicer argued, “Ronald Reagan believed the Republican Party was a big tent party,” so Spicer wants the district represented by someone who can work with all parties and help build consensus.
[...]
But equally upsetting to Spicer is votes Martin did vote with his party, such as with SB 5 (which was repealed when Issue 2 failed) and the state budget.

In talking about his opposition to SB 5, he added, “and 60% of the voters agree with me.” What particularly bothered Spicer about SB 5 was he believes it “had unintended consequences that would have created a windfall for trial lawyers by getting rid of binding arbitration.”

Spicer is not the only Republican challenging an incumbent, primarily over SB5. Craig Schweitzer a very conservative Republican running for the 67th District, had this to say in an email obtained by Join the Future

The Ohio legislature with our current State Representative chose to embark on a path that used professional educators, as well as other members of the public sector workforce and their collective bargaining units as a scapegoat for Ohio’s financial difficulties. It was a bad choice and in my view a disingenuous tactic that ultimately failed. No single group of, teachers, law enforcement officers, or firefighters is responsible for Ohio’s state budget shortfalls.

Democrat Frank Jackson, urging Republicans to re-legislate SB5 lite in an election year may be the boldest part of his plan.

The real fight over SB5 is still ahead

Yesterday was the filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for the Ohio General Assembly. We had looked earlier at the impact of incumbents of the Ohio House of Representatives voting for SB5 would have on their reelection chances.

14 SB5 supporters could not survive a 5% swing from their margin of victory in 2010 (2 didn’t even reach the 50% threshold due to a third party taking significant support). With only a 10-seat margin to maintain control, it is quite possible that control of the Ohio House will swing away from the Republicans and back to the Democrats.

Such a swing, could put a halt to the Governors radical agenda and turn the remaining 2 years of his first term into a lame duck effort.

Now some of this calculation is complicated by the recent redistricting, but as Gongwer notes, the 2012 elections are shaping up to be a continuation of the fight over SB5

SB5 Redux?: In some ways, the contest for control of the House next session is shaping up as a proxy battle between the two sides in the fight over the collective bargaining law changes (SB 5) that voters rejected last month in a referendum vote.

House Democrats, for example, noted that a number of educators have filed to run and Speaker Batchelder said the GOP newcomers include an ample amount of businesspeople.
[...]
Rep. Debbie Phillips (D-Athens), the House Democratic Caucus Campaign co-chair, said 2002 Teacher of the Year Maureen Reedy, who is seeking the open 24th House District seat in Franklin County, is among at least 10 teachers running for the House as Democrats.

"State budget cuts and the unfair attacks in SB5 have put educators and our children's education directly in the crosshairs of the Republican's anti-middle class agenda and teachers are standing up, fighting back and getting involved," Rep. Phillips said in a release. "We are very excited to have so many great teachers running for office. They are trusted and well known in their communities, which are two key components of electoral success."

While some candidates might have a difficult task ahead of them due to the gerrymandering of districts, the overwhelming rejection of SB5 is likely to create some very sharp contrasts for voters to decide upon.