Campaign 2012 Election Live Blog

12:09 p.m.
We're closing down the live blog. We'll be bringing all the relevant election results tomorrow, ahem, later today, - school levies, state board of ed, state legislature.

11:27 p.m.
Obama projected to win NV

11:27 p.m.
Incumbent house GOPers appear to have lost: Craig Newbold in HD5 to challenger Nick Barborak 50.44% to 49.56% and Rep. Casey Kozlowski has lost to John Patterson 52.78% to 47.22%.

11:13 p.m.
NBC calls Ohio for Obama. President Obama will be reelected to a second term.

11:10 p.m.
IA called for Obama. Romney now has to run the table to win.

11:02 p.m.
CO, CA, WA, HI called for Obama.
NC, ID, Called for Romney
Too early to call in OR

10:54 p.m.
Sadly, it looks like teachers Donna O'Connor (HD21) and Maureen Reedy (HD24) are going to narrowly lose

10:49 p.m.
MO called for Romney

10:44 p.m.
MN called for Obama

10:36 p.m.
Ohio Supreme Court Justice Yvette McGee Brown trails Sharon Kennedy 43%-57% of the vote, with 54% reporting

10:34 p.m.
As expected, Mitt Romney wins AZ.

10:32 p.m.
Teachers Tanyce Addison (SD26) and Teresa Scarmack (SD-20) are both trailing 40-60, with few precincts left to report.

10:17 p.m.
Ohio state Issues 1 & 2 both going down b y 69% and 64% respectively with 51% of precincts reporting.

10:13 p.m.
As of this time, in the race for the Ohio State Board of Education...
QB Stanley Jackson looks destined for defeat trailing 35-65
Districts 5 & 6 are close
Sarah Fowler, a 23 year old home schooler is going to win in District 7
Pro public education candidates Stephanie Dodd and Mary Rose Oakar are headed to victory
Tood Book, sadly looks destined for defeat.

9:35 p.m.
Another swing state, NH, is called for Obama.

9:26 p.m.
AP Calls Sherrod Brown reelected as Senator from Ohio

First swing state, WI called for Obama

9:15 p.m.
PA called for Obama

Education related, voters in South Dakota so far want to keep teacher tenure. 70 against repealing it, 29% for.

9:03 p.m.
All as expected...
NM, NY, MI are called for Obama.
TX, LA, KS, NE, ND, SD, WY, are called for Romney
AZ, MN, PA too early to call

8:32 p.m.
Teacher Donna O'Connor: 11,558, Duffey (Incumbent) 10,776 in early/absentee voting
Teacher Maureen L. Reedy: 12,082, Stephanie Kunze: 10,535 in early/absentee voting

8:29 p.m.
According to early vote totals Issue 2 is doing very badly. 57 of 88 counties have voted against measure.

8:03 p.m.
DC, DE, RI, ME, CT, MD, MA and IL are called for Obama.
MS, TN, AL, OK are called for Romney
Still too early to call in PA, NJ, MO, OH, NC, VA, FL

7:42 p.m.
Folks are still in line to vote in a number of locations around Ohio, including OSU

7:37 p.m.
SC called for Romney as expected.

7:32 p.m.
As expected so far. CNN calls WV, IN, KY, for Romney. VT for Obama.

A CNN exit poll has Obama 51, Romney 48 in Ohio. Exit poll in NC was 49-49 which was supposed to be Romney +4%

7:30 p.m.
The polls in Ohio are closed, and is being categorized as "too close to call" by NBC.

7:16 p.m.
Here's the times for poll closings:
7:00 pm: GA, IN, KY, SC, VT, VA
7:30 pm: NC, OH, WV
8:00 pm: AL, CT, DE, DC, FL, IL, ME, MD, MA, MS, MO, NH, NJ, OK, PA, RI, TN
8:30 pm: AR
9:00 pm: AZ, CO, KS, LA, MI, MN, NE, NM, NY, ND, SD, TX, WI, WY
10:00 pm: IA, MT, NV, UT
11:00 pm: CA, HI, ID, OR, WA
1:00 am: AK

An AFL poll of Ohio union members has found that SB5 has had a significant effect on union members

Ohio union members are energized and overwhelmingly supporting President Obama and Senator Brown for reelection.

By a 41-point margin, Ohio union members are voting for President Obama (70%) over Mitt Romney (29%) in the presidential race. The early vote among Ohio union members tilts even more heavily in President Obama’s favor (79% to 21%).

Obama’s support among Ohio union members has increased by five percentage points since 2008. Our Election Night and post-election polling in 2008 showed Obama winning 65% of the Ohio union vote, so even accounting for each poll’s margin of error, Obama currently is performing at least as well among Ohio members, if not better, than he did in 2008.

Senator Sherrod Brown also is in a strong position to win Ohio thanks to strong support among the state’s union members, among whom he leads Josh Mandel by 70% to 29%.

According to an NEA poll, 8 out of 10 people had education as a top priority.

The NYT has an interactive tool that will show you who needs what states to win.

Official live results can be seen at the Secretary of States website, here.

Where the polls stand - 1 week to go

With the debates behind us, and just a week of swing state campaigning ahead, the race for the Presidency is once again a close, polarized affair, between two very different choices.

Real Clear Politics has Mitt Romney falling back slightly from their previous weeks projection, with Obama favored to win 201 electoral college votes, Mitt Romney 191 (down from 206), and 146 up for grabs.

President Obama maintains a small but persistent lead in Ohio, of around 2%

The NYT calculates that this persistent lead is now projecting a 74.9% chance of President winning Ohio next Tuesday.

538 projects Obama to win 296.6 electoral college votes to Mitt Romeny's 241.4

Where the polls stand - 2 weeks to go

With just one Presidential debate to go, and a little more than two weeks remaining, campaign 2012 continues to be a close affair. Real Clear Politics has the race essentially tied, with Obama favored to win 201 electoral college votes and Mitt Romney 206, with 131 up for grabs.

Despite the narrowing of the national polling, President Obama continues to enjoy a small but persistent lead in swing states, including the all important Ohio

The NYT calculates that this persistent lead is generating a 70.3% chance of President winning Ohio on November 6th

These persistent swing state leads have 538 projecting the President to win 288 electoral votes to Mitt Romney's 255.

Where the polls stand - 22 days to go

With just over 3 weeks remaining until the November 6th election, Presidential polling has gotten a lot tighter, with the Presidents large lead having been eroded since the first debate.

Real Clear Politics now has the President ahead by just 10 Electoral College votes, with 146 up for grabs.

The NYT pollster has the President projected to win in the narrowest of fashions to date, too

Meanwhile, in Ohio, the race has tightened too, but remains a crucial firewall for the President

As you can see from the graph below, Mitt Romney has never led in Ohio

These polling leads in Ohio are confirmed by actual votes currently being cast early

A new poll shows President Obama with a commanding 59-31 percent lead among those who have already voted, with seven percent of those surveyed saying they have already cast their ballot.

A second poll, from PPP, showed similar results

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.

The President is being projected to win Ohio by the NYT polling analyst, but by the smallest probability we have seen to date

An Open Letter to Ohio Women

Playing fair and playing by the rules are two of the most important lessons we teach our children. Unfortunately, Ohio politicians don’t want to play fair and they want to make their own rules. The system is rigged to allow the majority party to draw Statehouse and Congressional district lines to protect their own seats and their political party. Drawing district lines that determine who gets elected is how the politicians hold on to their power. In effect, they have turned our government from “We the People” into “We the Politicians”.

Passage of State Issue 2 will establish a system that takes the power away from politicians and gives good, decent people who want to fix our problems a real chance to compete against career politicians and win. We all want an impartial process AND WE CAN MAKE IT HAPPEN! The choices we make on November 6 will have a profound effect on the lives of our children and grandchildren.

Politicians will come and go, but the passage of State Issue 2 will help ensure that neither party can unfairly dominate state politics. When elections are fair and balanced the people of Ohio win.

In this election, you will have an opportunity to take a stand and vote YES on Issue 2. The system that decides who our elected officials are should be open to the public, transparent and without partisan manipulation.

As women, one a Republican and one a Democrat, we invite you to unite with us around issues of fairness and accountability. There is much wrong with politics but how we choose our elected officials should not be one of those wrongs. We can fix this problem once and for all.

Collectively, we must stand up and be heard. We must do this for our communities, our children, our values and our future. We have the chance to make a big difference in this election. Not in one politician’s life–but in the lives of all Ohioans.

Please help us by talking with your friends and neighbors about this important issue and share this message on Facebook, Twitter and your other social networks. To volunteer or learn how you can become more engaged on this issue, please email women@votersfirstohio.com and a Voters First representative will get back with you right away.

Leave a legacy. Vote for fairness, vote for our future, and vote YES on ISSUE 2.

Sincerely,
Joan Lawrence
Former Member Ohio House of Representatives
League of Women Voters of Ohio, since 1957 State of Ohio

Frances Strickland
Former First Lady, State of Ohio

Where the polls stand - 50 days to go

With just 50 days to go until the election, the race for the Presidency appears to have settled into somewhat of a constant, but small lead for the President.

According to Real Clear Politics, the President has a 46 electoral college vote lead, with 110 in toss-up

In Ohio, the President has opened up an average lead of 4.2%

NYT polling analysts at 538 have the President coming down off his convention high and settled into a 305-232 electoral college vote lead

Recent polling in Ohio suggests the President is a 72.1% favorite to win the state

The next major domestic campaign events will be the debates. The Presidential debates take place on October 3rd, October 16th, and October 22nd, with the Vice Presidential debate happening on October 11th.