Campaign 2012 Election Live Blog

12:09 p.m.
We're closing down the live blog. We'll be bringing all the relevant election results tomorrow, ahem, later today, - school levies, state board of ed, state legislature.

11:27 p.m.
Obama projected to win NV

11:27 p.m.
Incumbent house GOPers appear to have lost: Craig Newbold in HD5 to challenger Nick Barborak 50.44% to 49.56% and Rep. Casey Kozlowski has lost to John Patterson 52.78% to 47.22%.

11:13 p.m.
NBC calls Ohio for Obama. President Obama will be reelected to a second term.

11:10 p.m.
IA called for Obama. Romney now has to run the table to win.

11:02 p.m.
CO, CA, WA, HI called for Obama.
NC, ID, Called for Romney
Too early to call in OR

10:54 p.m.
Sadly, it looks like teachers Donna O'Connor (HD21) and Maureen Reedy (HD24) are going to narrowly lose

10:49 p.m.
MO called for Romney

10:44 p.m.
MN called for Obama

10:36 p.m.
Ohio Supreme Court Justice Yvette McGee Brown trails Sharon Kennedy 43%-57% of the vote, with 54% reporting

10:34 p.m.
As expected, Mitt Romney wins AZ.

10:32 p.m.
Teachers Tanyce Addison (SD26) and Teresa Scarmack (SD-20) are both trailing 40-60, with few precincts left to report.

10:17 p.m.
Ohio state Issues 1 & 2 both going down b y 69% and 64% respectively with 51% of precincts reporting.

10:13 p.m.
As of this time, in the race for the Ohio State Board of Education...
QB Stanley Jackson looks destined for defeat trailing 35-65
Districts 5 & 6 are close
Sarah Fowler, a 23 year old home schooler is going to win in District 7
Pro public education candidates Stephanie Dodd and Mary Rose Oakar are headed to victory
Tood Book, sadly looks destined for defeat.

9:35 p.m.
Another swing state, NH, is called for Obama.

9:26 p.m.
AP Calls Sherrod Brown reelected as Senator from Ohio

First swing state, WI called for Obama

9:15 p.m.
PA called for Obama

Education related, voters in South Dakota so far want to keep teacher tenure. 70 against repealing it, 29% for.

9:03 p.m.
All as expected...
NM, NY, MI are called for Obama.
TX, LA, KS, NE, ND, SD, WY, are called for Romney
AZ, MN, PA too early to call

8:32 p.m.
Teacher Donna O'Connor: 11,558, Duffey (Incumbent) 10,776 in early/absentee voting
Teacher Maureen L. Reedy: 12,082, Stephanie Kunze: 10,535 in early/absentee voting

8:29 p.m.
According to early vote totals Issue 2 is doing very badly. 57 of 88 counties have voted against measure.

8:03 p.m.
DC, DE, RI, ME, CT, MD, MA and IL are called for Obama.
MS, TN, AL, OK are called for Romney
Still too early to call in PA, NJ, MO, OH, NC, VA, FL

7:42 p.m.
Folks are still in line to vote in a number of locations around Ohio, including OSU

7:37 p.m.
SC called for Romney as expected.

7:32 p.m.
As expected so far. CNN calls WV, IN, KY, for Romney. VT for Obama.

A CNN exit poll has Obama 51, Romney 48 in Ohio. Exit poll in NC was 49-49 which was supposed to be Romney +4%

7:30 p.m.
The polls in Ohio are closed, and is being categorized as "too close to call" by NBC.

7:16 p.m.
Here's the times for poll closings:
7:00 pm: GA, IN, KY, SC, VT, VA
7:30 pm: NC, OH, WV
8:00 pm: AL, CT, DE, DC, FL, IL, ME, MD, MA, MS, MO, NH, NJ, OK, PA, RI, TN
8:30 pm: AR
9:00 pm: AZ, CO, KS, LA, MI, MN, NE, NM, NY, ND, SD, TX, WI, WY
10:00 pm: IA, MT, NV, UT
11:00 pm: CA, HI, ID, OR, WA
1:00 am: AK

An AFL poll of Ohio union members has found that SB5 has had a significant effect on union members

Ohio union members are energized and overwhelmingly supporting President Obama and Senator Brown for reelection.

By a 41-point margin, Ohio union members are voting for President Obama (70%) over Mitt Romney (29%) in the presidential race. The early vote among Ohio union members tilts even more heavily in President Obama’s favor (79% to 21%).

Obama’s support among Ohio union members has increased by five percentage points since 2008. Our Election Night and post-election polling in 2008 showed Obama winning 65% of the Ohio union vote, so even accounting for each poll’s margin of error, Obama currently is performing at least as well among Ohio members, if not better, than he did in 2008.

Senator Sherrod Brown also is in a strong position to win Ohio thanks to strong support among the state’s union members, among whom he leads Josh Mandel by 70% to 29%.

According to an NEA poll, 8 out of 10 people had education as a top priority.

The NYT has an interactive tool that will show you who needs what states to win.

Official live results can be seen at the Secretary of States website, here.

Where the polls stand - 6 weeks out

With just 6 weeks of campaigning left, the President continues to hold a strong position.

In the Electoral College, Real Clear Politics calculates that the President currently holds the edge with 247 votes to Mitt Romney's 191, an increase of 10 votes for the President since last week.

In Ohio, all polling continues to show the President with a small, but significant lead.

The NYT polling analyst, 538, also shows President Obama with a large projected win in the electoral college

In Ohio, President Obama is projected to have a 76.5% chance of prevailing - his largest margin to date.

Not included in these analysis is a just released poll by Ohio's newspapers, which showed the Presdient leading Mitt Romney 51-46. The very same poll also confirmed polling trends that Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Josh Mandel by a sizable margin 52-45

The real fight over SB5 is still ahead

Yesterday was the filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for the Ohio General Assembly. We had looked earlier at the impact of incumbents of the Ohio House of Representatives voting for SB5 would have on their reelection chances.

14 SB5 supporters could not survive a 5% swing from their margin of victory in 2010 (2 didn’t even reach the 50% threshold due to a third party taking significant support). With only a 10-seat margin to maintain control, it is quite possible that control of the Ohio House will swing away from the Republicans and back to the Democrats.

Such a swing, could put a halt to the Governors radical agenda and turn the remaining 2 years of his first term into a lame duck effort.

Now some of this calculation is complicated by the recent redistricting, but as Gongwer notes, the 2012 elections are shaping up to be a continuation of the fight over SB5

SB5 Redux?: In some ways, the contest for control of the House next session is shaping up as a proxy battle between the two sides in the fight over the collective bargaining law changes (SB 5) that voters rejected last month in a referendum vote.

House Democrats, for example, noted that a number of educators have filed to run and Speaker Batchelder said the GOP newcomers include an ample amount of businesspeople.
[...]
Rep. Debbie Phillips (D-Athens), the House Democratic Caucus Campaign co-chair, said 2002 Teacher of the Year Maureen Reedy, who is seeking the open 24th House District seat in Franklin County, is among at least 10 teachers running for the House as Democrats.

"State budget cuts and the unfair attacks in SB5 have put educators and our children's education directly in the crosshairs of the Republican's anti-middle class agenda and teachers are standing up, fighting back and getting involved," Rep. Phillips said in a release. "We are very excited to have so many great teachers running for office. They are trusted and well known in their communities, which are two key components of electoral success."

While some candidates might have a difficult task ahead of them due to the gerrymandering of districts, the overwhelming rejection of SB5 is likely to create some very sharp contrasts for voters to decide upon.

SB5 heading for humiliating defeat

PPP has just released the final poll of the campaign and the results show that SB5 is headed for a massive defeat on Tuesday, if the We Are Ohio campaign gets all its voters out to vote.

Democrats are almost unanimous in their opposition to SB 5, supporting repeal by an 86-10 margin. Meanwhile there's division in the Republican ranks- 30% are planning to vote down their Governor's signature proposal while only 66% are supportive of it. Independents split against it by a 54/39 spread as well.

If this margin holds on Tuesday night it will be a humiliating defeat for John Kasich. Kasich continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 33% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove.

Poll	For SB5	Against SB5
PPP Mar 15th	31%	54%
Wenzel Apr 12th	38%	51%
Quinnipiac May 18th	36%	54%
PPP May 25th	35%	55%
Quinnipiac Jul 20th	32%	56%
PPP Aug 18th	39%	50%
Quinnipiac Sep 27th	38%	51%
PPP Oct 19th	36%	56%
Quinnipiac Oct 25th	32%	57%
PPP Nov 6th	36%	59%

GOP Pollster puts SB5 repeal way ahead

Republican pollster Wenzel Strategies has the repeal of SB5 way ahead

Overall, 51% said they favor repeal, compared to 38% who said they would vote to keep the new law in place. Another 11% said they were unsure on the question.

According to the poll independents favor repeal by a 10 point margin.

Voucher Poll

A recent poll, noted in the Pittsburgh Tribune Review shows that most Pennsylvanians oppose vouchers

Nearly two-thirds of Pennsylvanians oppose creating a voucher system that would use tax dollars to pay private-school tuition, according to a public opinion poll released yesterday.
[...]
In the March poll of 807 adults, 61 percent said they were opposed to the voucher idea, while 37 percent said they supported it. The margin of error was 3.4 percent.

Citizens continue to understand the benefits of a great public education and the means whereby vouchers undermine it, for the benefit of the few.