The (real) looming teacher crisis

“Reform movements in education are notorious for their tendencies toward presentism–for painting the past in the darkest possible light in order to stress the urgent need for rapid and major transformation of the status quo”–Sedlak & Schlossman, 1987

Unfortunately, economic decline has opened policy windows for educational reformers to wreak havoc on public education, impacting all public school educators. In this environment, there are clear winners and losers; individuals who are losing during this time are recent college graduates. From the Economic Policy Institute:

As more and more teachers are cut from the public sector, public schools are left with a teacher shortage. During typical decline, student enrollment decreases which sparks school closings and teacher cuts. However during current decline public school enrollment is projected to increase nationally, by about 6%. Consequently, classroom student-teacher ratios are at risk of increasing if jobs continue to be slashed. More importantly, preservice and beginning teachers are being stranded on the sidelines without employment opportunities. I wonder how teacher certified college graduates have managed to stay current with educational trends if they have not found full time teaching jobs over the past 2-3 years? Will these recent graduates ever be able to find jobs in education if they haven’t found full time employment in the past two years? I suspect that college graduates who were aspiring to become teachers but who have no found full time employment have moved onto other professions. For public schools teachers who are in the profession, I predict the following will be important to keep in mind going forward:

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Where the polls stand - Post Debate

Almost a week after the first debate, while the race has narrowed marginally, the national and statewide polling continues to show President Obama in a strong position.

In the Electoral College, Real Clear Politics calculates that the President has a lead of 251 (down from 265) votes to Mitt Romney's 181 (down from 191), with 106 in toss-up status.

The NYT polling analyst, 538, shows President Obama projected to win the Electoral College 307.6 - 230.4

In Ohio, the Presidents polling average lead is down from 5.6% to a still healthy 3.0%

This slight softening of polling in Ohio, has President Obama still projected to have a 79.1% chance of prevailing.

With early votiung underway, Boards of Elections are seeing high turnout

COLUMBUS DISPATCH // New Early-Voting Site Has Critics, Fans on First Day

Many people interviewed at Franklin County’s in-person absentee-voting center on opening day yesterday said that uncertainty surrounding the voting hours leading up to Nov. 6 and the change in the early-voting location have disenfranchised voters…

Yesterday, 1,396 people voted. In 2008, the previous presidential election year, 725 showed up on the first day of in-person voting.

TOLEDO BLADE // Turnout For the First Day of Early Voting Nearly Double of that of 2008

The first day of early voting in Lucas County is over, and the turnout was nearly twice that of the first day of early voting in 2008. It was an overwhelmingly Democratic day. Of the 928 voters, 696 were Democrats, 40 were Republicans, and the rest, 192, were members of other parties or were not affiliated with a party. There was a similar balance in favor of Democrats on the first day of early voting in 2008, when President Obama won in Lucas County and Ohio.

DAYTON DAILY NEWS // Voters Turn Up to Cast Ballots Early

Montgomery County had 695 voters while Champaign County had just 88. In Butler County 540 voters cast ballots. Clark County, which has been a battleground for Republicans and Democrats, had a higher first-day voter turnout - 380 - than larger counties like Warren and Greene, which had 282 and 354 respectively.

“I was just surprised; we didn’t have this (turnout) in 2008 that I recall,” said BOE Deputy Director Sally Pickarski. “It’s been fairly steady all day.”

AKRON BEACON JOURNAL // Early Voting Draws Crowd In Summit County

By the end of the day Tuesday, 1,035 people had voted early in Summit County, more than twice the 458 people who cast absentee ballots on the first day of early voting in 2008, the previous presidential election year. About 75 voters had to stand in the rain outside the board Tuesday, waiting their turns.

IndeOnline (Massilon) // Early Voting Doubles in Stark from Four Years Ago

“It’s been busy all morning,” said Mullane, as voters created a buzz outside her office. “In comparison to 2008, in-person early voting has more than doubled.”

CINCINNATI ENQUIRER // Early Voters ‘Making A Statement’

Within the first hour, nearly 100 people voted at the elections board’s Downtown office. By the time the office closed at 5 p.m., the total had risen to 816, about 27 percent higher than 2008’s 644, according to elections board director Amy Searcy.

Assessing Ourselves To Death

I have two points to make. The first is something that I think everyone knows: Educational outcomes, such as graduation and test scores, are signals of or proxies for the traits that lead to success in life, not the cause of that success.

For example, it is well-documented that high school graduates earn more, on average, than non-graduates. Thus, one often hears arguments that increasing graduation rates will drastically improve students’ future prospects, and the performance of the economy overall. Well, not exactly.

The piece of paper, of course, only goes so far. Rather, the benefits of graduation arise because graduates are more likely to possess the skills – including the critical non-cognitive sort – that make people good employees (and, on a highly related note, because employers know that, and use credentials to screen applicants).

We could very easily increase the graduation rate by easing requirements, but this wouldn’t do much to help kids advance in the labor market. They might get a few more calls for interviews, but over the long haul, they’d still be at a tremendous disadvantage if they lacked the required skills and work habits.

Moreover, employers would quickly catch on, and adjust course accordingly. They’d stop relying as much on high school graduation to screen potential workers. This would not only deflate the economic value of a diploma, but high school completion would also become a less useful measure for policymakers and researchers.

This is, of course, one of the well-known risks of a high-stakes focus on metrics such as test scores. Test-based accountability presumes that tests can account for ability. We all know about what is sometimes called “Campbell’s Law,” and we’ve all heard the warnings and complaints about so-called “teaching to the test.” Some people take these arguments too far, while others are too casually dismissive. In general, though, the public (if not all policymakers) have a sense that test-based accountability can be a good thing so long as it is done correctly and doesn’t go too far.

Now, here’s my second point: I’m afraid we’ve gone too far.

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UPDATED: Auditors Interim Attendance Report Released

The Auditor of State has released his interim report on the school attendance erasures issue.

The first observation from reading this 57 page document, is that very few schools have been completely investigated, and of those that have, little if any wrong doing has been found.

Instead what has been discovered are significant levels of bureaucratic oversights, in many cases excused by the complexity of the system designed by multiple layers of state and federal law.

The practices of Toledo are a good example

After news reports that Columbus CSD altered student attendance data, Toledo CSD publicly announced they too scrubbed attendance data. Toledo CSD officials indicated they understood these practices (i.e., removing students with a high number of absences) to be allowable. AOS met with representatives of Toledo at which time Toledo CSD explained its practice of removing students with five consecutive days of unexcused absences and a total of 20 unexcused absences throughout the school year. Toledo CSD has been using the “5/20” rule for withdrawing students since 2001. However, until 2005, Toledo CSD actively removed these students throughout the school year. In 2005, Toledo CSD lost several high‐level administrators to Cleveland MSD. Toledo CSD subsequently hired new administrators and in 2006 the local report card ratings fell since the “5/20” rule for withdrawing students was no longer in place. After realizing lower report card rankings, Toledo CSD administrators decided to reinstitute the “5/20” rule for withdrawing students in the following school year. However, instead of withdrawing students throughout the school year, Toledo CSD waited until after they received the first report from the Secure Data Center from ODE during the reporting period projecting the district’s report card rankings. Toledo CSD informed AOS that they removed all students that met the 5/20 criteria, regardless of assessment test score results for the affected students. However, AOS is still investigating these claims and will report its results later.

Cleveland's prevalent practices of removing truants also appears to fall into this category of bureaucratic non compliance, rather than "cheating"

Based on the information gathered to date, it appears evident that none or virtually none of the student files previously requested will include necessary supporting documentation related to the attendance event causing the student to be pushed to the State during the 2010‐2011 school year. Additionally, it appears Cleveland MSD potentially removed truant students under code 71 without full completion and documentation of truancy due process.

Again, the auditor has yet to fully complete an investigation of this district, noting "AOS is currently obtaining electronic data in an attempt to determine the impact of Cleveland MSD processes and procedures on accountability reporting and we will report results in a later report."

In Marion, another district the Auditor looked at, again no wrong doing was found

During the course of testing, AOS noted numerous instances of students being automatically transferred to the Marion Digital Academy during the 2010‐11 school year. As such, these students were included on the list of those students being pushed to the State and excluded from District report card results.
[...]
AOS identified 46 students transferring to Marion City Digital Academy during the 2010‐2011 school year with no parent or guardian initiation or approval included in Marion CSD’s student files.

Just more bureaucratic mis-steps. And more in Campbell City Schools

AOS tested Memorial High and Campbell Middle Schools at Campbell CSD (Mahoning County), identifying 11 (High School) and 29 (Middle School) students, respectively, that did not have supporting documentation available in the student files to support breaks in enrollment related to the following withdrawal reasons: Verified Medical, Truancy, Expulsion, and Homeschool.

And once again the Auditor notes, "AOS is continuing to investigate these retroactive withdrawals and will report further results later."

Forgive us for being unimpressed both with the how these interim findings are not matching up with a lot of the breathless allegations of "cheating" claimed by some in the media, and also by the sloth like progress being made by the Auditor of state.

It appears that the vast number of attendance erasures might in fact be legitimate, but simply not supported by documentation, as districts had poor policies and procedures in place to record and store the documentation. Furthermore, ODE, despite it's claims to the contrary have not been clear on what is required

The results of our statewide assessment indicate that there are a number of areas requiring centralized, improved ODE guidance and immediate clarification. ODE should use this report as a management tool to identify critical Accountability systems and weaknesses requiring enhancement to aid Ohio schools in Accountability determinations and reporting.

The Auditors list of recommendations is replete with calls for legislative changes, indicating that the current system is inadequate, and not the fault of districts

To strengthen and foster consistency in the reporting of approved homeschooling, ODE should consider requesting the General Assembly to amend the authorities and powers of ESC’s to approve homeschooling for all Ohio school districts, including city and exempt village districts.
[...]
The General Assembly should provide authority for ODE to collect personally identifiable information, such as student names, to enable ODE to work cooperatively with the Ohio Juvenile Court system and DYS tracking and reporting truant students.
[...]
The General Assembly should establish a single statewide student information system so that all data is uniform, uniformly reported, and accessible for data mining. Alternatively if such is not feasible the General Assembly should require ODE to approve the Student Information System used by each district in the state to ensure it meets requirements.
[...]
EMIS monitoring functions should be performed by an independent agency or commission appointed by the General Assembly.

Not mentioned anywhere in this report - how any of this has adversely affected student education. Neither does the Auditor indicate what the cost might be both to districts and to the state if full compliance and his recommendations were implemented.

UPDATED

Acting State Superintendent Sawyer just released the following statement

Good morning:

As anticipated from our communication yesterday, here is a link to the Auditor of State’s Interim Report on Student Attendance Data and the Accountability System released this morning. The report also is available here on our Quick Links page. We are pleased that the report shows that most districts visited to date by the auditor’s staff are compliant with legal and reporting requirements. However, as the report indicates, the investigation is ongoing and the Auditor’s Office will continue to review attendance data for all schools. Regardless of your participation to date in the ongoing investigation, I encourage you to read the interim report to reinforce the attendance policies, administrative guidelines and reporting requirements required by your school or district.

Next Monday during their regularly scheduled meeting, the State Board of Education will hear a report from the Auditor of State’s Office, which will result in discussion related to the impact of the interim report findings and the Local Report Cards. I will update you next week on the status of the Local Report Cards and access to the Secure Data Center.

Thank you,

Michael L. Sawyers
Acting Superintendent of Public Instruction

Final Interim ADM Report 10052012

November 2012 School levies and issues

With Early voting comming October 2, 2012, we thought it important to list all the school issues that will appear on ballots in Ohio. It should be noted that while there are 20 more school issues on the ballot this November, compared to November 2011, the ratio of renewals to new requests is almost identical at ~60% being requests for new money.

Type	New	Renew	Total
Bond	9		9
Bond/Levy	14		14
Bond/Tax	1		1
Levy	85	67	152
Tax	7	8	15
Tax/Levy	4		4
Total	120	75	195

Here is the complete list of school related issues, as reported by the Ohio Secretary of State

County	District	Type	N/R
ALLEN	Apollo Career Center JVSD	Bond/Levy	New
ALLEN	Elida LSD	Tax	New
ALLEN	Lima CSD	Levy	New
ALLEN	Shawnee LSD	Levy	Renew
ALLEN	Spencerville LSD	Tax	Renew
ASHLAND	Ashland County-West Holmes JVSD	Levy	Renew
ASHLAND	Ashland County-West Holmes JVSD	Levy	Renew
ASHLAND	Ashland CSD	Bond/Levy	New
ASHLAND	Hillsdale LSD	Tax/Levy	New
ASHTABULA	Ashtabula Area CSD	Levy	New
ASHTABULA	Grand Valley LSD	Levy	New
ASHTABULA	Jefferson Area LSD	Levy	Renew
ASHTABULA	Jefferson Area LSD	Levy	Renew
ATHENS	Athens CSD	Levy	Renew
ATHENS	Trimble LSD	Levy	New
BELMONT	Bellaire LSD	Levy	New
BROWN	Western Brown LSD	Levy	New
BUTLER	Monroe LSD	Levy	New
CARROLL	Brown LSD	Bond/Levy	New
CHAMPAIGN	Urbana CSD	Levy	New
CLARK	Clark-Shawnee LSD	Levy	Renew
CLARK	Greenon LSD	Bond/Tax	New
CLARK	Northeastern LSD	Tax	New
CLARK	Tecumseh LSD	Levy	New
CLERMONT	Batavia LSD #1	Bond/Levy	New
CLERMONT	Batavia LSD #2	Bond/Levy	New
CLERMONT	Milford EVSD	Levy	New
CLERMONT	West Clermont LSD	Levy	New
CLINTON	Blanchester LSD	Levy	Renew
CLINTON	East Clinton LSD	Tax	New
COSHOCTON	Coshocton CSD	Levy	Renew
CRAWFORD	Galion CSD	Levy	New
CUYAHOGA	Bay Village CSD	Bond	New
CUYAHOGA	Brooklyn CSD	Levy	Renew
CUYAHOGA	Cleveland Municipal SD	Levy	New
CUYAHOGA	Euclid CSD	Levy	New
CUYAHOGA	Fairview Park CSD	Levy	Renew
CUYAHOGA	Maple Heights CSD	Levy	Renew
CUYAHOGA	North Royalton CSD	Bond	New
CUYAHOGA	Richmond Heights LSD	Levy	New
CUYAHOGA	Rocky River CSD	Levy	New
CUYAHOGA	South Euclid-Lyndhurst CSD	Levy	New
CUYAHOGA	Strongsville CSD	Bond	New
ERIE	Edison LSD	Levy	New
ERIE	Sandusky CSD	Levy	New
FAIRFIELD	Walnut Township LSD	Tax	New
FRANKLIN	Dublin CSD	Bond/Levy	New
FRANKLIN	New Albany-Plain LSD	Bond/Levy	New
FRANKLIN	Upper Arlington CSD	Levy	New
FRANKLIN	Worthington CSD	Bond	New
FRANKLIN	Worthington CSD	Levy	New
GEAUGA	Cardinal LSD	Levy	Renew
GEAUGA	Chardon LSD	Levy	New
GEAUGA	Ledgemont LSD	Levy	New
GEAUGA	Newbury LSD	Levy	New
GEAUGA	West Geauga LSD	Levy	New
GREENE	Beavercreek CSD	Levy	New
GREENE	Cedar Cliff LSD	Levy	Renew
GREENE	Fairborn CSD	Levy	New
GREENE	Xenia Community CSD	Levy	New
GREENE	Yellow Springs EVSD	Levy	New
GUERNSEY	Cambridge CSD	Levy	Renew
HAMILTON	Cincinnati CSD	Levy	Renew
HAMILTON	Finneytown LSD	Bond	New
HAMILTON	Mt. Healthy CSD	Levy	New
HAMILTON	Northwest LSD	Levy	New
HAMILTON	Reading Community CSD	Levy	Renew
HARRISON	Conotton Valley Union LSD	Levy	New
HENRY	Napoleon Area CSD	Levy	New
HOLMES	West Holmes LSD	Levy	Renew
HURON	Monroeville LSD (Huron*, Erie)	Bond	New
HURON	Norwalk CSD	Levy	New
HURON	Willard CSD	Levy	Renew
JEFFERSON	Buckeye LSD	Levy	New
JEFFERSON	Edison LSD	Levy	New
JEFFERSON	Indian Creek LSD	Bond/Levy	New
JEFFERSON	Jefferson County JVSD	Levy	New
KNOX	Centerburg LSD	Levy	Renew
KNOX	East Knox LSD	Tax/Levy	New
KNOX	Mount Vernon CSD	Levy	New
LAKE	Kirtland CSD	Levy	New
LAKE	Painesville CSD	Levy	New
LAKE	Riverside LSD	Levy	New
LAKE	Willoughby-Eastlake CSD	Levy	Renew
LICKING	Johnstown-Monroe LSD	Tax	Renew
LICKING	Licking Heights LSD	Levy	New
LICKING	North Fork LSD	Tax	Renew
LOGAN	Indian Lake LSD	Levy	New
LOGAN	West Liberty-Salem SD	Bond/Levy	New
LORAIN	Amherst EVSD	Levy	New
LORAIN	Avon Lake CSD	Levy	New
LORAIN	Avon LSD	Bond	New
LORAIN	Clearview LSD	Levy	New
LORAIN	Columbia LSD	Levy	Renew
LORAIN	Columbia LSD	Levy	Renew
LORAIN	Elyria CSD	Levy	New
LORAIN	Lorain County JVSD	Levy	Renew
LORAIN	Lorain CSD	Levy	New
LORAIN	Midview LSD	Tax/Levy	New
LORAIN	North Ridgeville CSD	Levy	New
LORAIN	Oberlin CSD	Levy	Renew
LORAIN	Oberlin CSD	Tax	Renew
LORAIN	Wellington EVSD	Bond/Levy	New
LUCAS	Anthony Wayne LSD	Levy	Renew
LUCAS	Ottawa Hills LSD	Levy	New
LUCAS	Toledo CSD	Levy	New
MADISON	Madison-Plains LSD	Levy	Renew
MAHONING	Boardman LSD	Levy	New
MAHONING	Jackson-Milton LSD	Levy	New
MAHONING	Jackson-Milton LSD	Levy	Renew
MAHONING	Poland LSD	Levy	New
MAHONING	South Range LSD	Levy	Renew
MAHONING	Springfield LSD	Bond/Levy	New
MAHONING	Youngstown CSD	Levy	Renew
MARION	River Valley LSD	Levy	Renew
MARION	Tri-Rivers JVSD	Levy	New
MEDINA	Black River LSD	Levy	New
MEDINA	Black River LSD	Levy	New
MEDINA	Cloverleaf LSD	Levy	New
MEDINA	Medina CSD	Levy	New
MERCER	Celina CSD	Bond/Levy	New
MIAMI	Miami East LSD	Levy	Renew
MIAMI	Milton-Union EVSD	Levy	Renew
MIAMI	Newton LSD	Tax	Renew
MONROE	Switzerland of Ohio LSD	Levy	New
MONTGOMERY	Centerville CSD	Levy	New
MONTGOMERY	Huber Heights CSD	Levy	New
MONTGOMERY	Jefferson Township LSD	Bond/Levy	New
MONTGOMERY	Miamisburg CSD	Levy	Renew
MONTGOMERY	New Lebanon LSD	Levy	Renew
MONTGOMERY	New Lebanon LSD	Levy	Renew
MONTGOMERY	Northmont CSD	Levy	Renew
MONTGOMERY	Valley View LSD	Levy	New
MONTGOMERY	Vandalia-Butler CSD	Levy	New
MONTGOMERY	West Carrollton CSD	Levy	New
MORROW	Cardington-Lincoln LSD	Tax	New
MUSKINGUM	West Muskingum LSD	Levy	New
OTTAWA	Port Clinton CSD	Levy	Renew
PERRY	New Lexington CSD	Levy	Renew
PORTAGE	Aurora CSD	Levy	New
PORTAGE	Crestwood LSD	Levy	New
PORTAGE	Field LSD	Levy	New
PORTAGE	Rootstown LSD	Levy	Renew
PORTAGE	Waterloo LSD	Levy	New
PREBLE	Tri-County North LSD	Levy	Renew
PUTNAM	Ottawa-Glandorf LSD	Levy	Renew
PUTNAM	Pandora-Gilboa LSD	Tax	Renew
RICHLAND	Mansfield CSD	Levy	Renew
RICHLAND	Shelby CSD	Levy	New
ROSS	Zane Trace LSD	Levy	Renew
SANDUSKY	Bellevue City	Levy	Renew
SANDUSKY	Bellevue CSD	Levy	Renew
SANDUSKY	Clyde-Green Springs EVSD	Levy	Renew
SANDUSKY	Fremont CSD	Tax	Renew
SANDUSKY	Woodmore LSD	Levy	Renew
SCIOTO	Green LSD	Levy	Renew
SENECA	Bettsville LSD	Tax	Renew
SENECA	Mohawk LSD	Levy	New
SENECA	Tiffin CSD	Levy	Renew
SHELBY	Fairlawn LSD	Levy	Renew
STARK	Canton LSD	Bond	New
STARK	Louisville CSD	Levy	New
STARK	Marlington LSD	Levy	Renew
STARK	Massillon CSD	Levy	New
STARK	Minerva LSD	Levy	Renew
STARK	Tuslaw LSD	Levy	Renew
SUMMIT	Akron CSD	Levy	New
SUMMIT	Barberton CSD	Levy	New
SUMMIT	Coventry LSD	Levy	Renew
SUMMIT	Hudson CSD	Levy	Renew
SUMMIT	Nordonia Hills CSD	Levy	New
SUMMIT	Norton CSD	Levy	New
SUMMIT	Stow-Munroe Falls CSD	Levy	Renew
SUMMIT	Tallmadge CSD	Bond	New
SUMMIT	Twinsburg CSD	Levy	New
SUMMIT	Woodridge LSD	Levy	New
TRUMBULL	Brookfield LSD	Tax	New
TRUMBULL	Champion LSD	Levy	New
TRUMBULL	Howland LSD	Levy	Renew
TRUMBULL	Joseph Badger LSD	Levy	Renew
TRUMBULL	Mathews LSD	Levy	New
TUSCARAWAS	Buckeye JVSD	Levy	Renew
TUSCARAWAS	Dover CSD	Levy	Renew
TUSCARAWAS	Dover CSD	Levy	Renew
TUSCARAWAS	New Philadelphia CSD	Levy	Renew
TUSCARAWAS	Strasburg-Franklin LSD	Levy	Renew
TUSCARAWAS	Tuscarawas Valley LSD	Levy	Renew
UNION	Marysville EVSD	Levy	New
VAN WERT	Vantage Career Center JVSD	Levy	Renew
WARREN	Carlisle LSD	Levy	New
WASHINGTON	Warren LSD	Bond/Levy	New
WAYNE	Orrville CSD	Tax/Levy	New
WAYNE	Triway LSD	Levy	Renew
WOOD	Bowling Green CSD	Tax	New
WOOD	Perrysburg EVSD	Levy	New

Vote Yes on Issue 2 - Had Enough Early Vote Tour

The Issue 2 campaign is about to kick off a Vote Yes on Issue 2 - Had Enough Early Vote Tour. You can see their list of stops, and get involved, here.

This comes on the heels of the Toledo Blade endorsing a YES on Issue 2

Issue 2 on this fall’s statewide ballot enables voters to start to reclaim Ohio’s election machinery from the partisan politicians and their special-interest allies who now control it. The reform proposal merits a strong YES vote.

The ballot proposal would amend the Ohio Constitution to change the way district boundaries are revised for the state’s U.S. House delegation and the General Assembly after every federal census. Such redistricting largely determines the level of party competition within Ohio, a battleground state in national elections.

That process now is dictated by the Republican Party, which dominates the legislature and state Apportionment Board — and thus, the drawing of political maps. Republicans have rigged the maps in their favor, giving themselves the edge to win as many as 12 of Ohio’s 16 U.S. House seats and to keep control of both legislative houses for another decade.

Read the entire endorsement here.